The weighted average outcome from an uncertain event, based on its possible outcomes and their respective probabilities.

The rate at which an outcome is expected to occur.

The mathematical expected value of a random variable. Equals the sum (or integral) of the values that are possible for it, each multiplied by its probability. What people think a variable is going to be. In general, the expectation in this second sense may be more important than the first for determining behavior on a market, such as the exchange market.

Î¼ or () - Long-run expected average if a random variable is sampled many times (18.3, 19.4).

The average value calculated for a statistic over an infinite number of samples.

The weighted average of potential outcomes.

The financial forecast of the outcome of a course of action multiplied by the probability of achieving that outcome. The probability is expressed as a value ranging from zero to 1.

The sum of future amounts multiplied by their respective probabilities of occurrence. To Top

The amount that is predicted to be gained, using the calculation for average expected payoff.

The expected value of a random variable X, (E(X)), is the population mean of X. If g is any function of X, the expected value of g(X) is the population mean of g(X). In general, if X has p.d.f. f, the expected value of g(X) is .

an estimate of the value of an event or outcome whose likehood is uncertain, calculated by mutiplying its probability by its cost or benefit.

the sum of the values of a random variable divided by the number of values

For data in which the response variable is a sum of binary variables (i.e., a count of successes), expected value is used in the sense of fitted value. More generally, expected value is used as a synonym for expectation.

The expectation simply expressed in a dollar amount. For example, if your chance of winning a $100 pot is 50 percent then your expected value for that pot is $50.

The average value an experiment is expected to produce if it is repeated a large number of times.

A theoretical average value of a statistic over an infinite number of samples from the same population.

Is viewed as an anticipated, theoretical or fair value for an instrument.

As the amount and timing of future delivered value has some degree of randomness, it is appropriate to consider the expected value of value deliveries in a statistical sense, i.e., the value that might be delivered with some stated probability.

This is a mathematical term that is highly relevent to poker. It is how much you expect to win on a hand in the long run. For example, suppose you have a 50% chance of winning a $12 pot. Sometimes you will win $12 and sometimes you will win $0. However, your expected value is $6. The way you calculate expected value is (percentage chance of winning * pot size). Expected value is central to the concept of pot equity.

For a decision option, its expected value is the sum of the utilities of each different possible outcome of that option, each weighted by their own probability. See also: Decision tree, utility.

A parameter describing the "center of gravity" of a PDF. joint normal distribution A multivariate distribution with normal marginal distributions. lognormal distribution A random variable is lognormal if its logarithm is normal.

A phrase used in order to describe the profitability of an action made by a player. A positive expected value move (+EV) would therefore make money in the long run, whereas a negative expected value move (-EV) would lose money.

The mathematical probability for each draw multiplied by its payout.

The results obtained by multiplying the value of each possible event by its respective probability and totalling.

The weighted average of a probability distribution.

A reference similar to the term expectation. Often, when using the term expected value, players also include the additional value that may result from comps earned during play.

Percentage of return expected from a single bet (in this case, a hand of blackjack), based on a long-term average.

The projected average payback of a particular play.

The amount of money, on average, that a particular play or cards will yield.

The anticipated value of a future variable.

The average value that would be observed in taking an action an infinite number of times. The expected value of an action is calculated by multiplying the outcome of the action by the probability of achieving the outcome.

The mean or average of a random variable.

(Also called expectation, mathematical expectation.) The arithmetic mean of a random variable, conceptually similar to the simple average but broader in scope. If () is a continuous function of , then the expected value of (), denoted by [()], is the integral (or sum, if is discrete) of () times the probability element of . Thus, if is continuous with probability density function () defined in the range , then or, if is discrete with possible values and probability function (), then This reduces to the mean of itself in the case () = .

An average value found by multiplying the value of each possible outcome by its probability, then summing all the products.

In probability theory the expected value (or mathematical expectation) of a random variable is the sum of the probability of each possible outcome of the experiment multiplied by its payoff ("value"). Thus, it represents the average amount one "expects" as the outcome of the random trial when identical odds are repeated many times. Note that the value itself may not be expected in the general sense; it may be unlikely or even impossible.