The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, which is part of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, releases population projections every five years. The figures are used by the central and local governments when formulating administrative policies. The data is important to the public pension program because it is used as the basis for estimating benefits and premiums. The institute makes projections based on low, medium and high birthrates, with the government actually using the medium figure. The Social Security Council, an advisory panel to the ministry, determines the factors used to calculate birthrates. In the past, the panel was criticized for its overly optimistic weightings of some factors, as actual birthrates have generally declined more than projected.
a computation of future changes in population numbers based on assumptions about future trends in fertility, mortality, and migration
a forecast of future population size and age-sex structure based on assumptions about the future trend of fertility, mortality, and international migration
Computations of future population size, given certain assumptions about the rates of fertility, mortality, and migration. Demographers often issue low, medium, and high projections for the same population, varying the assumptions they make.
An approximation of the population of a geographic unit at a point in the future based on specific assumptions regarding future demographic trends.
A computation of future developments in population numbers given specified assumptions about future trends in fertility, mortality and migration. Projections are "what if" statements – that is, what the population would be if the assumed trends occurred. Projections are not forecasts.
A computed future population number based on methodology which trends known historical data. Use your browser's back button to return from whence you came.
Computation of future changes in population numbers, given certain assumptions about future trends in the rates of fertility, mortality, and migration. Demographers often issue low, medium, and high projections of the same population, based on different assumptions of how these rates will change in the future.